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CN 22-1108/R
Volume 41 Issue 10
Oct.  2025
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Article Navigation >  Journal of Clinical Hepatology  > 2025  >  41(10): 2022-2029

Disease burden of hepatitis B and its related liver cirrhosis in China， 1992—2021

DOI: 10.12449/JCH251011
  • 1.

    Department of Infectious Diseases, The Third Xiangya Hospital of Central South University，Changsha 410013，China

  • 2.

    Department of Anesthesiology, The Third Xiangya Hospital of Central South University，Changsha 410013，China

Research funding:

Natural Science Foundation of Hunan Province (2024JJ5538)

More Information
  • Corresponding author: ZHOU Pengcheng， xypcz@csu.edu.cn （ORCID： 0000-0003-1536-8732）
  • Received Date: 2025-03-11
  • Accepted Date: 2025-04-30
  • Published Date: 2025-10-25
    Abstract
  •   Objective  To investigate the changing trend of the disease burden of hepatitis B and its related liver cirrhosis in China， to identify related influencing factors， and to provide a basis for optimizing prevention and treatment strategies.  Methods  Based on the data from Global Burden of Disease Study in 2021， the Joinpoint regression model was used to calculate the average annual percentage change of the age-standardized incidence rate， prevalence rate， mortality rate， and disability-adjusted life year （DALY） rate of chronic hepatitis B and its related liver cirrhosis from 1992 to 2021. An age-period-cohort model was established to assess the risk of disease onset， and the ARIMA model was used to predict the trend of disease burden from 2022 to 2031.  Results  From 1992 to 2021， there was a tendency of reduction in the overall age-standardized incidence rate， prevalence rate， mortality rate， and DALY rate of hepatitis B and its related liver cirrhosis in China， with an average annual decline of 4.52% （95% confidence interval ［CI］： -4.63% to -4.44%， P<0.05）， 2.73% （95%CI： -2.80% to -2.66%， P<0.05）， 3.41% （95%CI： -3.50% to -3.33%， P<0.05）， and 3.55% （95%CI： -3.65% to -3.48%， P<0.05）， respectively. Compared with female individuals， male individuals had significantly higher age-standardized incidence rate， prevalence rate， mortality rate， and DALY rate. From 1992 to 2021， the risk of hepatitis B and its related liver cirrhosis in China first decreased， then increased， and decreased again with age， and it showed an tendency of reduction with time， while it first increased and then decreased with birth cohort. The predictive model showed that there would be a tendency of reduction in the age-standardized incidence rate， prevalence rate， mortality rate， and DALY rate of hepatitis B and its related liver cirrhosis in China from 2022 to 2031.  Conclusion  From 1992 to 2021， there was a tendency of reduction in the disease burden of hepatitis B and its related liver cirrhosis in China， and it would maintain a downward trend in the next decade. There are sex and age differences in the risk of hepatitis B and its related liver cirrhosis.

     

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